基于MIKE模型的水库溃坝洪水演进模拟分析
作者:
作者单位:

南京市水利规划设计院股份有限公司,江苏 南京 210006

作者简介:

徐敏(1990—), 女, 硕士, 工程师, 从事水文与水资源、 水利工程规划工作。

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中图分类号:

TV122

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Simulation Analysis of Reservoir Dam Failure Flood Evolution Based on MIKE Model
Author:
Affiliation:

Nanjing Water Planning and Designing Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210006, China

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    摘要:

    科学掌握水库水文水情,对合理制定水库防汛应急预案、避洪转移等均具有重要意义。以南京市杨塘水库为例,采用水动力模型模拟溃坝情况下洪水演进特征。根据模型计算结果,在溃坝工况下,杨塘水库下游淹没总面积为0.41 km2,淹没水深以小于2 m为主,其面积占比为95%;最大淹没水深达3.37 m,平均淹没水深为0.69 m。结合模型计算结果所制定的人口疏散转移路径,可最大限度地避免和减少洪涝灾害,将人民群众生命财产损失降到最低,为水库防汛应急预案制定提供技术依据。

    Abstract:

    Scientific understanding of the hydrological and water conditions of reservoirs is of great significance for the rational formulation of flood control emergency plans and flood avoidance and transfer for reservoirs. Taking Yangtang Reservoir in Nanjing as an example, the hydrodynamic model is adopted to simulate the flood evolution characteristics in the case of dam failure. According to the calculation results of model, under the condition of dam failure, the total submerged area downstream of Yangtang Reservoir is 0.41 km2. The submerged water depth is mainly less than 2 m, and its area accounts for 95%. The maximum submerged depth is 3.37 m, and the average submerged depth is 0.69 m. Combined with the population evacuation and transfer path formulated by the calculation results of the model, the flood disasters can be minimized and avoided, which will minimize the loss of people's lives and properties, and can provide the technical basis for the formulation of flood control emergency plans for reservoirs.

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徐敏,王洁,陈青青,高爽,朱丽丽.基于MIKE模型的水库溃坝洪水演进模拟分析[J].城市道桥与防洪,2026,(1):117-120.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-11
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-14
  • 录用日期:2025-08-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-18
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